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MD MD Chances? cGPA=3.6, sGPA=3.5, MCAT :38. 1st author publication.

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Hello all,
Wondering what my chances are at top-middle tier allopathic medical schools.

White male
Math major, state university.
Cumulative GPA: 3.60
Science GPA: 3.50
Senior year GPA~4.0. [I figured out how to study, finally]
MCAT: 38 (PS 14, VR 13, BS 11),
First author publication, lots of research experience/conferences/scholarships, e.g., helped lead/design a national conference workshop.
Summer of cancer research (and a some volunteering) in a third-world country.
Volunteer weekly at a local hospital, and get great patient exposure (about 60 hours total so far). I really love working with patients.
Have shadowed many doctors, some extensively, (around 60 hours total), one of whom is writing me a strong letter of recommendation.

I'm planning on applying to about 25-30 schools, and am wondering how to best select a good list of schools.
Am I competitive at places like Harvard?
Am I competitive at places like Boston University?

Thanks in advance!

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